However, the accumulation cluster at $70,200 remains modest in size. "The higher probability of a breakdown below this level cannot be dismissed until a more substantial base of committed buyers is established," the report noted.
Testing timesThe $70,200 level is likely to be tested repeatedly rather than broken in one move, Tim Sun, senior researcher at Hong Kong-based crypto exchange HashKey Group, told Decrypt
"From the current price action, we do see some signs that stronger hands are accumulating," Sun said. "This still looks more like defensive accumulation than confirmation of a new trend-driven rally."
When VIX—Wall Street's fear gauge—spikes, it signals investors are paying for protection against sharp moves, even if those moves haven't materialized yet. The current divergence suggests markets are bracing for a potential shock rather than reacting to one already unfolding.
"Futures and options markets are pricing in far more volatility than the S&P 500 is actually realizing," The Kobeissi Letter wrote. "Uncertainty is at unprecedented levels."
Sun said the wide gap between implied and realized volatility suggests strong hedging demand, with markets bracing for larger risk events. If those tail risks materialize, Bitcoin will be treated as a high-volatility risk asset. If they are overpriced, Bitcoin could recover quickly after short-term volatility.
For Bitcoin, the convergence of vulnerable on-chain support and macro uncertainty sets up a pivotal weekend.
A break below $70,000 "is not out of the question," Sun warned, noting that the current rally has been driven more by leverage than sustained spot buying, making prices vulnerable to a fast pullback if sentiment reverses.
