Technical analysis shows that the 200-week moving average and the 300-week moving averages are the structural backbone of Bitcoin’s macro price history. Back in the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin found its floor precisely at the 200 WMA, which was the end of an 84% drawdown from the prior cycle peak. The March 2020 COVID crash, brief as it was, sent the Bitcoin price straight through the 200 WMA and into the 300 WMA before reversing sharply.
Then in 2022, during the FTX crash and the collapse of the crypto credit market, Bitcoin again bottomed in the vicinity of the 300 WMA. This completed a pattern that has now repeated across three different market cycles during three entirely different macroeconomic conditions.
The red support box drawn on the right side of the chart above shows exactly that possibility. The price may still dip into the upper end of the support band around the 200-week moving average or, in a more intense selloff, slide toward the 300-week moving average around $51,800.
