Bitcoin Unrealized Loss Hits 15% Of Market Cap—Still Below FTX Capitulation Levels

Data shows the Unrealized Loss on the Bitcoin network has been elevated recently, but investor pain remains below previous capitulation events.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine what price it was last moved at. If this last transfer price was more than the current spot price for any token, then that particular coin is assumed to be underwater today. The exact amount of loss held by the token is equal to the difference between the two prices.

The Relative Unrealized Loss totals this difference for all coins of this type and calculates how the sum stacks up against the market cap. Another indicator called the Relative Unrealized Profit tracks the same for the tokens with a cost basis lower than the latest BTC value.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss over the last several years:

As is visible in the above graph, the 7-day MA of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss approached a value of zero in 2025 as BTC set its all-time high (ATH). With the bearish shift that arrived in the last quarter of that year, however, the metric saw a rapid increase.

The continuation of bearish momentum earlier this year caused a further degree of expansion in the indicator and as BTC has been stuck in consolidation since then, the high amount of unrealized losses have maintained on the network.

So, given the current market conditions, how long will it take for things to turn around for Bitcoin? The report explained that resolving such a degree of unrealized loss has historically required time, further price depression, or some combination of both. It added:

A sharp V-shaped recovery remains a theoretical possibility, but given the current magnitude of unrealized losses, it would demand an extraordinary and sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed timeframe.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,600, down 3.5% over the past week.