JPMorgan says the Iran war has produced an unusual market split: bitcoin is showing signs of safe-haven demand while gold and silver, the traditional geopolitical hedges, have weakened under the pressure of outflows, profit-taking and deteriorating liquidity.
Bitcoin Shows Safe-Haven DemandAs rates rose, the dollar strengthened and investors moved to de-risk, those positions started to unwind. CME-based positioning shows a sharp drop in gold and silver exposure since January, while bitcoin futures holdings have stayed comparatively stable in recent weeks.
In a separate summary of the same report, JPMorgan said, “The surge in Iran’s crypto activity highlights the role of cryptocurrencies as a safe haven asset in countries experiencing economic and monetary instability and geopolitical stress.” The bank cited Chainalysis data showing increased Iranian crypto activity after the outbreak of war, including transfers from domestic exchanges into self-custody wallets and international platforms.
That combination of borderless settlement, self-custody and round-the-clock trading sits at the center of the bank’s argument. Bitcoin’s momentum indicators, which had fallen into oversold territory, are now moving back toward neutral, JPMorgan said, suggesting selling pressure may be easing.
Gold and silver momentum, by contrast, swung from overbought to below-neutral as liquidations accelerated. The bank’s liquidity work points the same way: gold’s market breadth has now fallen below bitcoin’s, while silver’s thinner depth has made its decline even more violent.
At press time, BTC traded at $68,597.
