Russia, Hanke noted, is the war’s clearest beneficiary. It produces oil, fertilizer, and helium, three commodities bottled up in the Gulf, and is positioned to exchange sanctions relief for market access.
Hanke dismissed the Mossad’s decapitation strategy as a strategic failure. Intelligence assessments predicted the Iranian regime would collapse within days of the supreme leader’s assassination. It didn’t happen. “This goes in the failure book,” Hanke said.
The Johns Hopkins University economist added:
“The strategy and the objective of Israel and the United States have failed already.”
The balance sheet picture is no cleaner. Hanke co-authored a piece in Fortune with former U.S. Comptroller General Dave Walker, drawing directly from the U.S. government’s own consolidated financial statements. As of September 30, 2025, the federal government holds roughly $6 trillion in assets against nearly $48 trillion in on-balance-sheet liabilities. Add Social Security and Medicare — both off-balance-sheet — and total liabilities climb to approximately $136 trillion.
“You have a little over six trillion in assets and almost 48 trillion in liabilities,” Hanke told Lin during the discussion.
He continued:
“That means you’re insolvent. It’s a complete catastrophe, and the numbers are deteriorating very rapidly.”
FAQ Is the U.S. government insolvent? According to its own consolidated financial statements, the federal government holds roughly $6 trillion in assets against $136 trillion in total liabilities when Social Security and Medicare are included. Is Iran winning the war against the U.S. and Israel? Economist Steve Hanke argues Iran is winning by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, increasing oil exports, and waiting out a militarily superior but economically constrained opponent. How does the Iran war affect U.S. oil prices? The U.S. is a net crude oil importer, so global price increases driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure directly raise costs for American consumers and businesses. What is Steve Hanke’s gold price target? Hanke maintains a price target range of $6,000 to $7,000 per ounce for gold during the current cycle, though he expects the pace of gains to slow given rising yields and a stronger dollar.
