More than $290 million exited Bitcoin ETFs last week as a broad “risk-off” shift continues to grip global markets amid rising geopolitical and macro pressures.
The sharpest single-day move came primarily from IBIT on Friday, with $225.5 million of total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, capping a volatile week that began with strong inflows of $167.2 million on Monday before sentiment reversed.
"The macro forces working against it are compounding," he said. "Triple-digit oil is fuelling inflation fears, which pushes rate cut expectations further out, which in turn removes the very catalyst that risk assets need to find a floor."
Geopolitical risk escalated Monday after President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could "take the oil in Iran" and potentially seize Kharg Island, the country's major fuel hub.
Gilbert said a ceasefire could spark a “strong relief rally,” but warned that, without credible de-escalation, markets will remain defensive with “more choppy sessions ahead.”
Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Labs, told Decrypt the “risk-off” tone was the primary driver, though he noted last week's outflow “doesn't seem that dramatic compared to the recent trends."
"I think what drove it was the general risk-off trend as the expectation for the ceasefire waned as the peace talks faltered towards the end of the week,” he added.
Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, echoed that read, attributing the outflows to "risk-off sentiment and end of quarter rebalancing," while telling Decrypt the $290 million figure is "quite normal."
He added how Bitcoin's relative strength against other asset classes remains "notable and very supportive"—and cautioned against reading structural significance into weekly flow data.
"ETF inflows/outflows are not only directional funds—there is a lot of basis trading done by hedge funds," Kala said. "Therefore, there are no hard limits or thresholds that would signal a structural change."
Gilbert noted Bitcoin had held up relatively well through the conflict and had been "a surprising standout despite its risk status as an asset," but warned that ongoing tensions show it is "in no way immune to this indiscriminate sell-off."
He noted the market is increasingly pricing in a Fed rate hike, "a far cry from the multiple cuts the market was pricing in just months ago,” and flagged Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled remarks as a potential further pressure point.
