That includes more than 30% of the Bitcoin held by long-term holders, or $304 billion worth of the largest crypto asset, which is now underwater—the highest share since 2023, according to the report.
“Long-term holders are now selling at their deepest losses in three years, and the speed of the reversal indicates a sharp deterioration in confidence,” the report reads.
“The broader context makes this more concerning," analysts added. "Bitcoin’s price has been drifting slightly higher over recent weeks, but the share of long-term holders sitting in profit has been quietly shrinking at the same time.”
“This kind of divergence between price action and on-chain conviction has historically been a warning sign,” the report says. “For instance, similar moves occurred in mid-2018 and mid-2022 before price drops by over 25%.”
Another 25% drop would push Bitcoin below $50,000 for the first time since February 2024. As of this writing, Bitcoin is currently about 47% off its all-time high of $126,080 set in October.
“The difference this time is that holders are not yet rushing Bitcoin to exchanges to sell. That kept February’s worst moments from becoming even worse, and it is doing the same now,” it said, adding that if it continues to hold, prices could stabilize rather than fall further.
