Due to growing political tension and ongoing talks between the banking and cryptocurrency industries, TD Cowen has drastically lowered its estimate of the likelihood that the long-awaited CLARITY Act, the proposed US crypto market-structure bill, will become law this year.
The investment bank’s managing director, Jaret Seiberg, now places the probability of Senate passage and subsequent House approval at roughly one‑in‑three, a markedly more pessimistic assessment than earlier expectations.
Coinbase And Banks Spar Over Stablecoin YieldFrom the banks’ perspective, limiting stablecoin yield is also beneficial because it reduces the incentive for crypto platforms to use stablecoins for everyday payments — an outcome banks view as a threat to core deposits.
Those issues have proven difficult to reconcile across the political and industrial divides, and they are keeping lawmakers and industry groups locked in detailed bargaining.
Senators Temper Optimism On Crypto BillTD Cowen’s Managing Director also noted that even lawmakers who had previously expressed confidence about passage are tempering expectations.
Seiberg expects the most likely window for action to be in late July, arguing that the threat of the recess could force senators toward compromise. “We see the prospects as lower. To us, there is a one‑in‑three probability for the Senate to advance a version of the CLARITY Act that the House will pass,” he wrote.
He added that the only plausible route to enactment, in his view, would be for Congress to push through a compromise despite objections from both Coinbase and the banking sector — a scenario he described as possible but unlikely, since Congress usually only takes that course intermittently.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
