In a recent research blog post, Google said the quantum resources needed to attack the elliptic curve cryptography used across cryptocurrencies may be far lower than older estimates suggested, and it may be time for blockchain projects, especially Bitcoin, to take action against this impending risk.
Google’s Warning Puts Bitcoin’s Cryptography At RiskThe consensus view held that breaking Bitcoin’s cryptographic system would require a quantum machine of extraordinary scale on the order of millions of qubits. However, researchers at Google have demonstrated that the computational threshold for a successful attack on a cryptographic system like Bitcoin’s is far lower than the industry had priced in.
Researchers at Google compiled two optimized quantum circuits that implement Shor’s algorithm against ECDLP-256. Based on the coverage of the blog post by Google’s research team, the company’s updated estimate pointed to roughly 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits and fewer than 500,000 physical qubits for a relevant attack, with execution measured in minutes on a sufficiently advanced machine. This is an approximately 20-fold reduction in the number of physical qubits required to solve ECDLP-256.
What’s Next For Bitcoin And The Crypto Industry?Google’s wider quantum-security messaging now points to a 2029 migration timeline for post-quantum cryptography. The company noted that it is now working with others on responsible approaches, like Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation.
