Bitcoin remains pinned in a $66,000-$70,000 range with whale transfers at multi-year lows and no meaningful bid defending levels, according to a Wintermute research note shared with Decrypt.
Institutions and retail investors alike "sit on the sidelines, unwilling to commit capital" until they see regulatory clarity or a shift in geopolitical conditions, the trading firm added.
Bitcoin’s performance for the quarter appears to be more of a “macro-driven reset than a structural shift,” Samar Sen, head of international markets at Talos, told Decrypt.
“Crypto, alongside other risk assets, came under pressure following the escalation of the Iran conflict, alongside tariffs and tighter policy expectations,” he added.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold roughly $100 billion in assets and saw net inflows resume in March, suggesting institutional demand has weathered the drawdown, Sen explained.
Liquidity across order books has also recovered from late-2025 lows allowing markets to “absorb larger moves,” with market structure “holding up more consistently” than in previous cycles, he added.
“Periods of macro uncertainty tend to slow risk appetite, but they also tend to bring a greater focus on risk management and portfolio diversification, and we’re seeing continued institutional engagement in that context,” he said.
U.S. monetary policy could prove the most important variable for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory, according to Zeus Research analyst Dominick John, who told Decrypt a Fed pause or easing would “release liquidity, lift risk appetite, and help stabilize Bitcoin,” while continued hawkishness “could tighten liquidity and increase selling pressure.”
A resolution to the ongoing Middle East conflict could provide a "critical catalyst" for the next quarter, with the Fed's stance on rate cuts serving as "the definitive watershed for either a powerful rebound or a further breakdown," Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, told Decrypt.
A “growing regional divergence” in markets such as Iran, where access to global financial systems remains “constrained,” could also shape Bitcoin's trajectory, Markus Levin, co-founder of decentralized data network XYO, told Decrypt.
“Bitcoin usage has historically increased during periods of economic pressure and is likely to rise again if the conflict persists,” he said. “That demand will not offset global macro forces in the short term, but over time it can push Bitcoin toward behaving more like a neutral reserve asset, closer to gold.”
