Key Takeaways:
Polymarket traders have placed $115M on U.S. forces entering Iran by Dec. 31, giving it an 90% probability. Kalshi’s Strait of Hormuz closure market holds $7.3M in volume, reflecting deep concern over a 7-day blockade. Mojtaba Khamenei holds 64% odds to lead Iran by the end of 2026 as successor markets follow the Supreme Leader’s death. Betting on Conflict Outcomes in 2026Shipping disruption markets reflect a grim near-term outlook. Polymarket gives only 11% odds that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by April 30, rising to 33% by May 31. Average daily ship transits for April 3 are priced at 100% for the 0-10 range. A 51% chance of prices in daily transit above 20 ships by the end of April.
