Key Takeaways:
Fed funds futures on CME show a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting. WTI crude topping $110 per barrel after Trump’s April speech pushed Polymarket’s 0-cuts odds to 36% for all of 2026. The next major test arrives June 17, when markets price a 96.7% chance the Fed keeps borrowing costs unchanged again. Fed Faces Market Consensus: No Cuts, No Rush to EasePhysical oil premiums in Houston climbed to $5.50 above futures. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply moves daily, has seen Iranian naval actions nearly halt tanker traffic since fighting escalated in late February 2026. The International Energy Agency coordinated emergency stock releases across more than 30 countries, which have buffered but not eliminated shortages.
Prediction Markets and Shuffling the Deck SeatsGovernor Stephen Miran cast the lone dissent at the March 17-18 meeting, voting for an immediate cut. The other 10 voting members held.
For the June 17 FOMC meeting, CME Fedwatch shows a 96.7% probability of another hold. On March 4, that figure sat at 66.8%, with 30.2% of traders still expecting a cut by June. That easing premium has almost entirely vanished.
Wall Street desks remain more optimistic than futures markets. Citi, for example, still forecasts more than 75 basis points in cuts for the year. But by February, Citi postponed it’s prediction. That split matters. Professional forecasters are weighing a scenario where the conflict de-escalates, and oil retreats; futures traders are pricing the world as it exists today.
The next FOMC decision lands on April 29. Barring a dramatic reversal in oil prices or a ceasefire that credibly holds, the Fed is expected to do what markets have already priced: nothing.
