Per Reuters, a potential framework to end hostilities and a ceasefire has been put together by Pakistan, with all elements needing to be agreed upon by Monday. The initial understanding would be structured as a memorandum of understanding finalized electronically through Pakistan, the sole communication channel in the talks.
Short squeeze“It was the ceasefire negotiation reports from Iran, not Trump's remarks, that contributed to Bitcoin's price increase,” Ekko An, analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, told Decrypt.
The market has stopped taking Trump's comments at face value since he has repeatedly made statements without any substantive coordination, the analyst explained. “As a result, the market is now interpreting price moves by combining his statements with external action signals.”
A confluence of these factors, coupled with Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF launch on April 8, undercutting Blackrock IBIT’s 0.25% fee with a 0.14% expense ratio, also drove Bitcoin's spike, he explained.
Despite the potential rally in risk assets, the Strait of Hormuz remains a structural concern.
“Hormuz reopening would collapse the oil risk premium, which would pull forward rate cut expectations, which would re-lever the entire risk curve from equities to crypto,” Lim said. “Oil drops first, then rates reprice, then risk assets rally.”
However, he cautioned that a pause without meaningful normalization in the Strait “delivers a headline rally that will likely fade within days.” The market has seen this pattern three times since late March. “Until that number moves materially, rallies on rhetoric will keep getting sold,” Lim said.
Both analysts who spoke to Decrypt noted that a potential retest of $80,000 is possible, but heavily contingent on successful talks and a confirmed ceasefire. A failure, however, could send Bitcoin down to $60,000.
