Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, says the Iran conflict has pushed U.S. recession odds to 40% and warns that a sustained oil supply shock could send crude prices to $200 a barrel, hitting everything from fertilizer to plastics across the global supply chain. Risks are even higher for other nations.
Key Takeaways:
BCA Research puts U.S. recession odds at 40%, warning that sustained 10% oil supply cuts could push crude to $200. Oil held above $100 a barrel signals commodity traders see deeper risk than equity investors currently pricing in. Berezin favors Anthropic among 2026 IPO candidates but says a wave of listings often marks a sector peak. Economist Warns Oil Could Hit $200 If Iran Conflict Disrupts 10% of Global Supply“I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that,” Berezin said, comparing equities to a bouncing ball descending a staircase. “It’ll bounce up for a while, but ultimately it’ll end up lower than where it started.”
“If we have a sustained decrease in global oil production of around 10%, then it’s very easy to see oil prices going to $200,” he said. Berezin added:
“I mean think about the pandemic period during the worst point of the pandemic. Remember all those sort of empty streets? Global oil consumption was down about 20%. If you look in the Straight of Hormuz, that’s how much global oil supply goes through the Straight every day.”
“The irony could be that we end up with an AI-empowered world, but we don’t need like trillions of dollars in data centers to get there,” he said.
