The analyst describes this setup as a bear case scenario, noting that it is not the expected outcome but still a realistic possibility. In this structure, Bitcoin’s price action first moves higher into a resistance zone around the $78,000 to $82,000 region, where a previous breakdown occurred in late January.
There’s also a liquidity zone around a wick low in February. That wick is situated just above $60,000, where the Bitcoin price bottomed on February 6 before being quickly bought back up.
The outlook is that this level still needs to be taken out cleanly before a sustained rally can begin. Without that sweep, upside moves will still be vulnerable to failure.
A quick bottom from current levels would allow capital to rotate sooner into altcoins. A delayed sweep to levels, on the other hand, will keep liquidity tied up in Bitcoin for longer and postpone that rotation.
A Drop Below $40,000 Looks UnlikelyEven with that bearish scenario on the table, the price structure of Bitcoin is still against a sustained breakdown below $40,000. According to the analyst, there is only about a 40% probability that this scenario plays out.
