Bitcoin Rallies Above $71K —But Analysts Warn The Peace Is Only Temporary

Bitcoin climbed back above $71,000 after news of a conditional U.S.–Iran ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The energy infrastructure attacks in Saudi Arabia show how fragile the de-escalation remains.

This rebound is supported by risk repricing, not conviction. According to the market colour, the macro picture remains uneven. U.S. payrolls rebounded, but softer labor data keeps the Fed juggling growth concerns and energy-driven inflation. The upcoming inflation report (CPI) due this week may determine if Bitcoin’s move back above $71,000 is sustainable or just a short‑lived bounce.

Options data from QCP shows compressed front-end vols, but downside skew remains bid. Hedge demand is still strong. Notable call interest sits between $75K–$85K, while support lies around $60K–$65K, making $74K a key breakout level.

The report of Novaque Research from CryptoQuant explains that Binance is currently holding about 637.6K BTC in reserves, while Coinbase Advanced holds roughly 866.6K BTC. Both are still tracking well below their levels from earlier in 2025.

The split between exchanges matters, according to the report. Coinbase is more closely tied to US institutional flows, whereas Binance better reflects global crypto‑native liquidity. Coinbase’s reserves have stayed tight and mostly sideways after a long downtrend, hinting that bigger players are not eager to bring coins back on‑exchange to sell. Binance’s balances have rebounded more visibly, but they still sit below previous highs and under the 50‑day average.

These signals suggest positioning is cautious rather than capitulatory: holders are wary, but they are not behaving as if they must dump Bitcoin at any price.

Exchange netflow supports that view, CryptoQuant believes. Overall exchange netflow is slightly negative at around -289.6 BTC, and since February there has been a consistent tilt toward outflows, only occasionally punctuated by sharp deposit spikes. In a genuine internal market break, the analysis explains, you would typically see persistent positive netflows as investors move coins onto platforms to sell into weakness. Instead, the data still shows Bitcoin being pulled off exchanges on many sessions.

This does not automatically imply a bullish outcome, but it does highlight that Bitcoin continues to be supported by a holder base more inclined to remove supply than to keep recycling it back into the market.

Bitcoin’s defensive setup mirrors institutional hesitation. Traders may be waiting for a clear macro or volatility shift before committing fresh capital.

The short-term rally hinges on headlines, not fundamentals. Unless the ceasefire holds and inflation softens, Bitcoin could struggle to break $74K convincingly.

For traders, this means tight ranges and tactical plays, not full-risk exposure, at least until the next macro signal.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.