Trump struck a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026, and within hours, blockchain analysts were asking who knew first.
Key Takeaways:
Trump’s April 7 ceasefire with Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices below $100 and triggering a bitcoin rally. Polymarket wallets with near-zero history turned as little as $10k into $154k+ betting on the exact April 7 ceasefire outcome. Prediction markets and Hyperliquid face growing calls for scrutiny over pre-announcement trades. Newly Created Wallets Netted Hundreds of Thousands on Polymarket and Hyperliquid Before Iran Ceasefire News
These wallets were funded on or shortly before April 7 and had placed no meaningful prior trades. That detail is what caught attention.
Retail traders watching the April 7 action called the setup “rigged” across social media. Whether that characterization holds up to scrutiny is a separate question. The on-chain record, at least, will not disappear.
