A group of suspected insiders scored big on Polymarket on Tuesday, profiting more than $600,000 in combined trading contracts related to the U.S. and Iran ceasefire, according to on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
“This cluster has been betting and winning on military markets since 2024 using multiple accounts, some recently created, some older,” a representative for Bubblemaps told Decrypt, adding that the accounts “predicted multiple independent surprise military operations.”
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THEY DID IT AGAIN
Last night, the SAME cluster of Polymarket accounts made $600k predicting the US Iran ceasefire, before changing their handles
Those profits largely came via markets that had the ceasefire taking place prior to April 7 and April 15. However, the accounts did not hit on all their wagers, collectively losing just shy of $50,000 on trades regarding a ceasefire prior to March 31.
While the wager size is large, Bubblemaps says that it doesn’t necessarily point to the accounts having privileged information about the actions.
“People can only wager the capital they have. We don't know the income or net worth of individuals trading on Polymarket,” a representative for the firm told Decrypt. “We can only definitively say that these bets were large and well-timed.”
The firm also stated publicly that it cannot say for certain the Polymarket accounts in question belong to insiders.
Alleged insider trading on prediction markets has drawn tremendous scrutiny of late, particularly as it relates to potential insiders within the Trump administration.
