The chart shared by the analyst highlights how the 50-week SMA and the -14 wave trend level have repeatedly acted as dividing lines between bearish and bullish conditions. Back in 2021, Bitcoin’s cycle top was followed by a breakdown below both levels, which preceded the 2022 bear market.
When transitioning out of the 2022 bear market, the recovery that followed did not immediately lead to a new bull run. Instead, the flip into bullish mood became clear only after Bitcoin broke its long-term downtrend and reclaimed both indicators.
A similar structure is visible in the current cycle. Bitcoin has rejected its 2025 peak and is trading below a descending trendline, while the price is below the 50-week SMA. Furthermore, the wave trend indicator is still below the -14 threshold. As long as these conditions persist, then the Bitcoin price will still be in a corrective or bearish environment, even if there are short-term rallies.
What Needs To Happen Before The Bull Run StartsThese signals worked together in the previous cycle for the transition into an extended rally. Until they appear again, any recovery in price will be unconfirmed. Keeping in mind that the 50 SMA is a lagging indicator, the goal is not to identify the bottom. It is to confirm the cycle has turned.
