Key Takeaways:
Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran military operations market hit $16.4M in volume, with April 30 carrying 42% odds. Kalshi gives only a 16% chance the U.S. reopens its Iran embassy by Jan. 1, 2027, with “No” priced at 84 cents. Ceasefire talks begin around April 10-11 in Islamabad, but traders put just 26% odds on the truce holding through April 21. Polymarket Traders Give April 30 the Best Odds for a U.S.-Iran War Declaration EndA $16 million question is sitting on the board. The clock started on April 7.
