While Ethereum (ETH) retests a key level for the first time this month, some market watchers have advised caution, warning that the start of a new bull run may not be here yet.
No Ethereum Party Until This happensAs the altcoin breaks past the $2,150-$2,200 area, some market observers cautioned investors not to celebrate yet, arguing that ETH has failed to hold this level despite multiple retests during this period.
Similarly, market watcher Crypto Scient advised investors not to “confuse positioning with guessing,” explaining that the cryptocurrency hasn’t broken out of its macro downtrend, which began last October.
According to the chart, Ethereum is currently near the macro trend resistance while still respecting a Lower High (LH) structure. To him, this is “where most people front-run and get chopped.”
Scient argued that even if the bottom is on and ETH’s bull run has begun, “the money won’t be made under this trend. It will be made once the price is above it.”
Nonetheless, the price needs to break above the trend, flip it into support, and show acceptance above it before investors can call a true reversal. “Until that happens, this is just another retest in a downtrend,” he asserted.
Key Levels To WatchAs he explained, this price point serves as the triangle’s hypotenuse and, if it holds, could trigger a rally toward the $4,900 x-axis. This level also aligns “almost perfectly” with the 0.80 MVRV Pricing Band, located around the $1,880 area.
The 0.80 band “has been a reliable indicator of cycle bottoms,” as it has historically marked where sellers exhaust themselves, and “Strong Hands” take over, Martinez highlighted.
The URPD also shows that below $1,880, the most significant buy-walls sit at $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089, meaning that if the February lows are lost, the price would visit those levels.
“A clean break and hold above $2,500 is my primary trigger for the beginning of a new macro bull rally,” Martinez concluded.
