One Bitcoin metric has always predicted every cycle bottom, and what it is saying now is very important for its next outlook. This metric is the long-term holder supply in loss, which is a measure that tracks how much of the supply held by long-term investors is underwater at current prices.
Long-term holders are Bitcoin addresses who have held their coins for at least 155 days, and so it captures how deeply underwater the most patient cohort of the market has become.
During the 2015 cycle bottom, 53% of long-term holder supply was in loss. A similar pattern appeared at the 2018 low, where about 45% of long-term holdings were in loss. The trend repeated once more during the 2022 bottom, with the figure reaching around 44%.
bThe current long-term holder supply in Loss reading sits at approximately 29% and it is climbing. That figure is meaningful in two directions simultaneously. On one hand, it confirms that conditions are deteriorating and there’s still a large share of holders that would move into loss if prices decline further.
On the other hand, the reading is still well short of the 44% to 53% range that has always been certified as genuine cycle floors. According to crypto analyst Ardi, this second meaning shows that the Bitcoin price is not at the bottom yet but is still building toward the conditions where bottoms form.
