Market expert Sam Daodu has released a new April outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), flagging geopolitical developments and macroeconomic forces as the decisive factors for where prices may go next.
Daodu’s note comes after Bitcoin ran into resistance just above roughly $72,000 and amid a market environment that has produced the asset’s first consecutive quarterly losses since 2022.
Bitcoin Faces Unusual AprilOn paper, April looks generous — the average return sits at 10.7% — but that mean is skewed by a handful of outsized years (2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020), each with gains above 28%. Strip out those extreme outliers, and the average April return falls to a subdued 0.7%.
What makes April 2026 unusual, Daodu argues, is the dominance of external macro and geopolitical drivers that were largely absent in prior years. The ongoing US–Iran conflict has kept oil prices elevated — above $100 since early March — and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%.
Under these conditions, Daodu warns, the usual early‑April dip and subsequent rebound are no longer assured. Rather, three key elements will determine Bitcoin’s future.
Three Possible PathsDaodu lays out three price scenarios to quantify how those outcomes could play out. In his bullish case, a genuine ceasefire coupled with oil prices falling below $90 would significantly relieve macro pressure. That relief, he says, could allow Bitcoin to clear resistance above $75,000 and propel a run toward $80,000.
His base case envisions a more muted month. Persistent tax‑related selling in early April could cap gains and keep BTC trading between about $68,000 and $76,000. Without a clear catalyst, such as an end to the conflict, Bitcoin would likely consolidate in that band.
That pressure could send BTC toward $65,000 or lower; the expert notes that Standard Chartered has warned of a deeper slump toward $50,000 if macro conditions deteriorate substantially.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
