Gold has quietly outrun Bitcoin by a wide margin — and one Wall Street analyst says that gap tells the real story of where markets are headed.
Bitcoin’s ETF Gains Pale Against Gold’s RunBitcoin is currently trading around $72,000. McGlone’s downside target is $10,000. Getting there would require a drop of more than 86%.
Bitcoin May be Guiding Risk Asset Reversion
McGlone traces Bitcoin’s 2025 high of $126,200 to a specific moment in broader market history. At roughly the same time Bitcoin hit that peak, the US stock market’s total value relative to the country’s gross domestic product reached its highest point since 1928 — a ratio widely used to judge whether equities are overpriced. According to McGlone, that overlap is not a coincidence.
Reports from his analysis suggest this combination created the conditions for a sharp reversal rather than a sustained bull run.
Bitcoin is also about four times more volatile than the S&P 500, according to McGlone’s data, which he says makes it a difficult sell for institutional investors who weigh returns against risk.
Capital Rotation Raises Questions About Bitcoin’s RoleBased on his analysis, the phase he calls “pump then dump” — where prices spike and then reverse — may already be underway. If that reading is correct, Bitcoin could fall alongside other speculative assets while gold continues to attract investors looking for stability.
McGlone stops short of saying exactly when a drop to $10,000 would occur. His argument is framed around broader market conditions tightening and investors pulling back from risk, not a specific timeline.
What he does say clearly is that the ETF boom, once seen as a long-term driver for Bitcoin, may have already done most of its work.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
