The Gaussian Channel indicator on the weekly timeframe chart shows that each of these cycles has followed the same general structure. The structure involves a recovery from a bear market bottom, a bull run that carries the BTC price to new all-time highs, and then a final distribution phase before a major drawdown.
Bitcoin formed bull market tops in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, with each cycle spanning approximately four years from peak to peak. Consistent with this structure, the most recent cycle appears to have peaked on October 6, 2025, at just above $126,000.
Bitcoin Might Be In The Sell ZoneWhenever the price falls below the MA200, the instruction is to buy and accumulate. When Bitcoin breaks back above the MA200 and has been trading above it for approximately 1,000 days, the instruction is to sell.
At present, BTC has already spent many months above this moving average. Therefore, the cryptocurrency might not be in a phase where aggressive accumulation makes sense.
