Senators negotiating the stablecoin yield issue stalling crypto's market structure bill say they could release draft compromise text as soon as this week, even as banking groups have privately signaled dissatisfaction with the latest proposal.
"Anti-evasion was an issue that we've made progress on, and enforcement is an area that we're still working on," Tillis said, adding that he believes concerns stem partly from stakeholders not having seen the full text.
The ABA countered that the CEA's model understates the risk by using today's roughly $300 billion stablecoin market as its baseline, instead of directly projecting what happens when yield-paying stablecoins scale to between $1 and $2 trillion.
Drawing the lineObservers say the stablecoin yield debate, while contentious, hasn't eroded broader bipartisan support for market structure legislation.
"Market structure legislation has meaningful bipartisan momentum because leaders in both parties understand the need for clear, durable rules for digital assets," Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger told Decrypt. "Getting it done would strengthen U.S. competitiveness and provide certainty for innovators and consumers alike."
Whether the White House’s report changes the political calculus of the negotiation is now a central question.
“When the White House's own economists run the numbers and conclude that allowing stablecoin yield would increase bank lending by just 0.02%, it's very hard to sustain the argument that this is a serious systemic threat to the banking sector,” Simon Jones, co-founder and CEO of modular layer-2 chain Reya, told Decrypt.
The banking lobby's pushback on the White House’s findings suggests the fight has moved past economics and into “competitive positioning,” Jones added.
Still, some observers say the report alone won't settle the fight, or even guarantee a deal both sides can live with.
"While there will likely be a compromise, such as action-based yield instead of passive yield, there remains a risk that yields will be prohibited," Stefan Muehlbauer, head of U.S. government affairs at CertiK, told Decrypt. "This will cause exchanges to reject the deal."
If the draft draws that line too narrowly, the consequences may yet extend beyond Washington.
"The real policy question is not whether stablecoin holders will receive yield, but where, and under whose supervision," Pierre Person, CEO of Fira, told Decrypt. "An overly restrictive approach to yield distribution in the U.S. would push users and liquidity toward jurisdictions and models that already allow it."
