That is the same pattern that appeared in 2018 and again in 2022, and in this reading, 2026 is now occupying the same late-stage position, only on a larger scale and with lower volatility.
That timing element is important, and it supports an extended bearish case in the months to come. History shows prior cycle bottoms formed a year after the all-time high, not immediately after the first large drawdown. By that logic, the Bitcoin price may still be too early in the process for a lasting bottom, especially if this cycle peak is treated as the October 2025 high at $126,080.
Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?There’s also an interesting template that Bitcoin might follow based on its previous two major bear markets. The 2017 bull run peaked and gave way to a bear market that ultimately caused an approximately 84% drawdown from top to bottom. The 2021 cycle followed a similar script, with Bitcoin’s top-to-bottom decline ending at about 77%.
At current prices around $74,680, Bitcoin is trading 40.8% below that October top, which means there could be more downside ahead. Furthermore, previous bear market bottoms arrived about 360 to 370 days after the prior cycle’s peak. This sequence would point to a potential cycle bottom somewhere in Q3 or Q4 2026.
