Ethereum is testing resistance as the market finds some relief. The price is at a decision point. And a CryptoQuant analyst has identified a supply structure beneath that resistance that has no precedent in the current cycle — and a clear one in the cycle that preceded it.
That combination — supply depleted, distribution absent — describes a market where the structural pressure for downside has been significantly reduced without the structural signal of panic that typically accompanies cycle bottoms at their most acute. The market is not experiencing forced selling at a scale that matches previous major lows. It is experiencing quiet.
The price context adds the final dimension. Ethereum is currently moving near the lows of previous correction ranges — the price levels that, in prior cycles, represented the zone where the risk-reward balance shifted in favor of patient capital rather than continued selling.
The analyst names this carefully: a constructive signal under current conditions. Not a confirmation. Not a guarantee. A structural alignment between depleted supply, absent distribution pressure, and historically significant price levels that, taken together, describes a market where the conditions for recovery are present even if the catalyst has not yet arrived.
Ethereum Reclaims Weekly Pivot as Recovery Tests StructureEthereum is trading near $2,350–$2,400 on the weekly timeframe, reclaiming a key pivot level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance throughout the current cycle. After the sharp drawdown earlier in 2026, ETH has staged a recovery from the $1,600–$1,800 region, where strong demand emerged and halted the decline.
The current structure reflects a market attempting to transition back toward equilibrium. Price is now interacting with the 100-week (green) and 200-week (red) moving averages, which are converging near the $2,300 zone. This area represents a critical technical threshold: reclaiming it suggests stabilization, while failure would reinforce the broader corrective trend.
The 50-week moving average (blue) is flattening and beginning to turn upward, indicating improving short-term momentum. However, ETH has not yet established a clear higher high on the weekly timeframe, which keeps the recovery unconfirmed.
Volume patterns remain consistent with a post-capitulation environment. The spike during the sell-off indicates forced liquidations, while the subsequent normalization suggests reduced stress but not strong accumulation.
Structurally, Ethereum is at a decision point. Sustained acceptance above $2,400 would open the path toward $2,800–$3,100, while rejection would likely return price toward the $2,000 support zone.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
