However, as the holding period increases, the risk begins to decline noticeably. By the time an investor holds Bitcoin for several months or up to a year, the probability of loss drops, but remains significant. The chart shows that at the quarterly level, the probability of loss decreases to 37.6%. For over a year, the likelihood of loss drops further to 24.3%, highlighting a clear contrast when holding for just a day.
Bitcoin Loss Probability During Multi-Year HoldsBitwise research data confirms this trend, showing that meaningful reductions in loss probability only appear over multi-year holding periods. Investors who hold BTC for over three years see their probability of loss fall sharply to 0.7%, while holding for beyond five years reduces it further to 0.2%. Across the ten-year range covered by the data, there were no recorded instances of investors selling at a loss, indicating that all observed holding periods of that length resulted in gains.
