The world's most important oil chokepoint has been effectively shut (with some hiccups here and there) since late February, and traders aren't expecting it to return to normal anytime soon.
Iran's IRGC responded by declaring the strait closed to vessels traveling to and from ports of the U.S., Israel, and their allies. Tanker traffic collapsed by more than 90%. Brent crude shot above $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, peaking near $126—the fastest oil price spike associated with any conflict in modern history.
That's the backdrop for a cluster of prediction market bets that are telling a consistent story: disruption is far from over.
It’s worth noting that the odds of Brent oil spiking on Myriad have never been below 50%. There was a brief period of optimism back on April 17 when the odds reached 50.9%, but the panic won out again (as it usually does during a war) and predictors increased their bets on oil going to new highs.
Taken together, the markets are sketching a scenario where some normalization comes—but slowly, and not cleanly. On Polymarket, the odds for Hormuz traffic to return to normal by May 31 sit at 61%. Those odds increase to around 70% when the date is moved further to June 30.
In other words, traders think the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz happens eventually, just not this month, and probably not without more drama along the way.
The BIMCO warning remains in effect. IMF Portwatch—the resolution source for the Polymarket market—requires a 7-day moving average of at least 60 vessel arrivals for the market to resolve to “Yes.” Current data is nowhere near that threshold, the first date marker, April 30, is just 10 days away.
