Bitcoin Recovery Still Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, Analyst Says

A CryptoQuant analyst has explained how the recent Bitcoin recovery has still looked like a bear market rally based on signals in on-chain metrics.

As the below chart shows, the 30-day change in the supply of this Bitcoin cohort was negative between mid-2025 and January 2026, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were distributing their coins.

Since the end of January, however, the metric has flipped negative, a sign that coins have been becoming a part of the LTH supply. Note that this metric has a 155-day delay attached between when buying occurred and when it reflects on the data since coins first have to be held for 155 days before they can be classified into the group. As such, the green netflow doesn’t imply accumulation that’s occurring in the present.

What it does suggest, however, is that the market has seen the rise of HODLing conviction as BTC has settled into the consolidation phase. In the last month, 345,000 BTC has matured into the group. “That’s structural strength building under the surface,” noted Maartunn.

Another metric shows that STHs have been transferring their Bitcoin at a loss recently, suggesting that they have still been exiting at a loss despite the recovery surge. Distribution has not just come from the STHs, but also the large entities holding more than 100 BTC in their wallets, who have seen their exchange inflows pick up.

Bitcoin surged above $78,000 last week, but the asset has since seen a setback as its price has dropped to $75,300.