Bitcoin's rally to $78,000 ran into resistance last week, with Schwab's digital assets strategist pointing to two investor cost basis levels that could keep prices rangebound—even as ETF inflows and ceasefire optimism provide underlying support.
Above that, around $83,000 is the average cost basis across all spot Bitcoin ETPs, a level where new crypto investors may be inclined to sell to recoup losses. The 200-day simple moving average at nearly $87,000 represents the long-term price trend, sitting just above the $83,000 level.
“Both measures suggest that the average Bitcoin investor is currently sitting at a loss,” Ferraioli told Decrypt. “These levels could serve as much stronger areas of resistance than moving averages.”
Institutional demand may absorb selling pressure at those levels, according to Simon Jones, Co-founder and CEO of Reya.
“The 83,000 figure for spot ETP buyers is the more interesting level to watch,” he told Decrypt. “These are largely institutional investors who came in through regulated products, patient capital that came in for structural reasons rather than a quick trade. Given the sustained inflows we've seen, there's a reasonable case that new demand absorbs any profit-taking at that level.”
Key market dynamicsThat institutional demand is the most reliable catalyst, Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, told Decrypt. “We've seen multiple strong inflow days in April, including a standout $664 million single-day surge on April 17 led by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. This steady absorption of supply sets the current cycle apart from past retail-driven manias.”
While a retest of the 50-day SMA wouldn't be surprising, Ferraioli said the market is still waiting for the CLARITY Act to pass as a “major catalyst to reset momentum” in the crypto market.
