Kevin said Dogecoin’s corrective move from its December 2024 cycle high near $0.49 has now largely fulfilled the downside target he had been watching for months. “If you just take the measured move target of the bear flag pattern, you’re basically sitting at the exact same price of what the measured move target is,” he said, placing that target at about $0.095.
That level, in his view, is not just a technical target but a historically important zone. Kevin pointed back to August 2024, when Dogecoin bottomed near the same area before rallying sharply in the fourth quarter, and to earlier periods in 2022, 2023 and early 2024 when the band acted as resistance, support, or a breakout-retest level. “This is a major level, right? This is a major major zone,” he said. “You found support here back in January 2024 before we legged up to the 23 cents level. You found the support here again in the summertime of 2024 before we legged up to 49 cents.”
His near-term read is constructive, but only in a limited sense. He pointed to improving weekly money flow, buy signals, upside movement in weekly stochastic RSI, and a bullish turn in LMACD on lower time frames as evidence that the market is in a late-winter, early-spring countertrend rally. But he argued Dogecoin still faces a heavy technical ceiling before traders can talk about a real trend reversal.
On the weekly chart, Kevin said Dogecoin needs to reclaim the 21-week EMA and 20-week SMA around the low-$0.11 area, while higher resistance bands sit around $0.136, $0.147 and $0.161 depending on the moving average used. On the monthly chart, he said the picture is even less convincing. Dogecoin, according to Kevin, closed below the 100 EMA on the monthly for the first time in its history, while monthly momentum, money flow and LMACD have yet to show the kind of reset he associates with the end of a bear market.
“Treat it as a bear market for now,” he said. “This countertrend rally is nice, but for now, it’s still just a countertrend rally on the crypto market until proven otherwise.”
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.09558.
