New research from the World Advertising Research Center, published April 21, suggests that the UK’s black-market operators will outpace the regulated market in advertising spending in the next year and a half. The forecast lands one day ahead of a scheduled Westminster Hall debate on gambling advertising in Parliament, where MPs are expected to examine how the incoming regulatory landscape is reshaping the advertising market.
Key Takeaways:
Unlicensed operators forecast to exceed £1 billion in UK gambling ad spend by 2028. Licensed UK operators to reduce advertising spend 9.2% to £1.05 billion in 2025-26. Westminster Hall debate on gambling advertising scheduled for April 23. Crossover point arrives as the Gambling Commission is mid-leadership transition“While ad spend within the UK’s gambling sector is set to rise to £1.9bn this year, WARC research has found that there is a two-speed market at play, with almost all growth now being driven by unlicensed firms,” the advertising intelligence firm explained in its research statement. “These operators are predominantly based overseas and are paying ever-increasing amounts to reach UK consumers online via search and social media.”
WARC characterized the projected 2028 overtake as “a sign of the tectonic shift currently occurring within the market.” The research also flagged a faster crossover in sponsorship spending. WARC projects unlicensed operators will account for more than half of gambling sponsorship ad spend as early as the 2026-27 period.
In a statement accompanying the research, Hurst said the shift “should ring alarm bells in Westminster,” adding: “The real question is whether advertising is coming from regulated operators, who are held to strict standards, or from the harmful, illegal black market, which operates entirely outside the rules.”
Hurst argued that further restrictions on licensed operators would accelerate rather than contain the shift. “Targeting licensed operators when their advertising spend is already falling will not reduce overall advertising; it will simply bolster the harmful illegal black market, which is aggressively targeting UK customers,” she said. “The government must go further and faster to clamp down on the black market before it is too late.”
