Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing signs of a fresh bullish rebuild, according to a new morning brief from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., who said a rising Bitcoin Positioning Index alongside a sharp increase in futures open interest points to new risk-taking rather than a short-covering bounce. For traders watching whether the recent recovery has structural backing, that distinction matters.
Bitcoin Futures Show New Risk-On Setup That is, in his view, what the market is showing now. “What we are seeing now is exactly the second scenario,” Adler wrote. “OI 30D Change % stands at +14.5%. This is one of the two strongest readings over the last 120 days. Moreover, 23 out of the last 30 days closed with positive OI. This is a sustained upward leverage rebuild.”
That point goes to the heart of the report. A bullish price move driven by position unwinds can be violent but short-lived. A move supported by rising open interest and improving directional positioning tends to carry a different message: participants are putting on new risk, and doing so with enough consistency to shift the broader derivatives structure.
Adler also contrasted the current setup with January, when the daily Positioning Index briefly surged but failed to translate into a durable trend. “In January, the daily Positioning Index also briefly surged above +20 and +30, but the structure deflated quickly and OI did not provide the same confirmation,” he wrote. “The current setup is much stronger: the smoothed SMA-30d trend is moving higher, and OI is simultaneously confirming an inflow of new leverage. This is not a single impulse — it is a coordinated move across two metrics.”
That does not make the setup risk-free. The report is clear about where the structure would begin to break down. The first warning sign, Adler said, would be open interest rolling back below zero on a 30-day basis, which would imply renewed deleveraging. A second deterioration signal would be the SMA-30d reversing lower and slipping back below zero, turning what now looks like a sustained build into a failed spike.
At press time, BTC traded at $78,620.
