On-chain analyst James Check has pushed back against claims that a quantum-enabled sale of Satoshi-era Bitcoin would represent an existential market shock, arguing that the likely sell-side pressure is far smaller than the headline numbers suggest.
Bitcoin Quantum Fears Over Satoshi’s Coins Overblown?Check’s central argument is not that quantum risk should be ignored. He said Bitcoiners should support “the debate, development, and preparation” of credible post-quantum solutions. But he rejected the idea that vulnerable coins automatically translate into a market-ending sell event.
“Quantum bulls often quote the 6.9M vulnerable coins as being a sword of Damocles that threatens to kill Bitcoin should a CRQC ever come to market,” Check wrote. “As with most things, there is a tonne of lost nuance, and the devil is absolutely in the details.”
Check argues that the full 6.934 million BTC figure is best understood as a theoretical upper bound rather than a realistic market-risk estimate. Taproot is relatively new, he noted, meaning many owners are likely still active and able to migrate. Reused addresses, meanwhile, likely include large volumes managed by exchanges, custodians, ETFs and other entities with both the incentive and capacity to upgrade when post-quantum paths become available.
“The real risk are the 1.716M Satoshi Era P2PK coins, which many liken to a sunken galleon full of gold, there for the taking if the lock can be pried open,” Check wrote.
Even under a severe assumption that all 1.716 million P2PK coins are stolen and sold, Check said the market impact would likely be significant but not fatal. He compared the haul against revived supply, URPD shifts, exchange deposits and trading volumes, finding that the full P2PK balance is broadly equivalent to about 60 to 90 days of sell-side activity seen in Bitcoin bull markets or late-stage bear-market capitulations.
“There is no doubt that a QC attacker selling all the P2PK coins would negatively impact the price. It probably creates a bear market. However, where will, I push back strongly, is it is nowhere near the ‘end-of-days’ fatal sell-side many quantum bulls in the debate seem to claim.”
Check pointed to revived supply, which measures coins held for at least six months that are spent on a given day, as one lens for estimating Bitcoin’s ability to absorb older supply. He said a baseline of roughly 10,000 BTC per day is typical even in bear-market conditions, while bull-market profit-taking can push revived supply above 20,000 to 30,000 BTC per day.
On that basis, the sale of Satoshi-era P2PK coins would represent a large but not unprecedented demand test. Check also cited recent 90-day cost-basis turnover, arguing that more than 2.3 million BTC had moved to new buyers between $60,000 and $80,000 since the Feb. 5, 2026 sell-off, exceeding the P2PK balance by 1.36 times.
For Check, the quantum debate ultimately goes beyond market mechanics. The sell-side argument, he suggests, is weaker than often claimed; the harder question is whether Bitcoin should preserve property rights even when old coins become vulnerable, or intervene before someone else can take them.
At press time, BTC traded at $77,869.
