Key Takeaways:
CME Fedwatch puts a Fed hold at 99% for the April 29 FOMC meeting, down from a 6.2% hike chance one month ago. Polymarket traders have put $20.9 million into the 2026 rate cuts market, with 40% pricing in zero cuts this year. Kalshi shows 84% odds the Fed holds in July, as the March 2026 CPI at 3.3% keeps rate cut expectations limited. Traders Price Fed Hold at 99% for April FOMC as Polymarket and Kalshi Signal No Cuts Through SummerThat consensus has held firm for at least a week. One month ago, the picture looked slightly different. The hike probability stood at 6.2%, suggesting some traders were hedging against an upside surprise in economic data. That concern has since faded.
The driver behind the hold consensus is a combination of a March 2026 CPI reading of 3.3% year-over-year and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Those figures have given Fed officials little reason to move in either direction, and traders appear to agree.
Traders will next watch the April jobs report and updated CPI data for any signs that the calculus is shifting. Until those numbers arrive, the market’s working assumption is that the Fed stays put.
