THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS.
Sell. In. May.
But only in mid-term election years.
2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%.
2026: mid-term year. -60.73% is pointing to $30K. May is approaching.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is already trading roughly 40% below its October 2025 record high of approximately $126,000. Despite that slide, high-profile bulls like billionaire Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee have not walked back their $250,000 year-end target — a price that would require the cryptocurrency to more than triple from where it sits today.
He pointed to what he described as a bear flag channel forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart — not a bottoming pattern, he stressed, but a continuation of the existing downtrend.
Based on the setup, BTC tested resistance near $79,500 before showing signs of pulling back. A move down to the flag’s lower boundary, around $69,000, is possible in May if selling pressure returns. A more severe breakdown below that line, Brandt warned, could push Bitcoin under $50,000.
Halving Cycle Data Suggests The Peak May Already Be InThe halving cycle history makes the bear case harder to dismiss. Bitcoin’s price peaks have historically arrived 12 to 18 months after each halving event. After the 2012 halving, the peak came in 12 months. After 2016, it arrived in 17. After 2020, it took 18 months.
Not everyone is ready to call it a bear market, though. Analysts at Bernstein have pointed to a potential recovery toward the $100,000 to $150,000 range, a more measured view that neither chases the $250,000 target nor surrenders to the most bearish projections.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
