On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the latest Bitcoin rejection came inside a zone containing some historically important cost basis levels.
Bitcoin Could Find Support At -1 SD Of The STH Realized Price NextStatistically, the longer investors hold onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. Since the STHs represent the new entrants of the market with a relatively low holding time, they can be considered the weak side of the market.
Due to their fickle nature, the STHs tend to be sensitive to retests of their cost basis. In bearish periods, this can show up as panic selling around their break-even mark, while in bullish phases they accumulate more at it.
Currently, the True Market Mean is located at $78,000, while the STH Cost Basis at $79,000. Together, these two levels mark a zone that could act as resistance for the any rallies in this bearish environment.
And indeed, BTC’s recent attempt at recovery hit the brakes around these levels. As Glassnode explains:
This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum.
With Bitcoin rejected from this zone, the next major level of interest could be a standard deviation (SD) of the STH Cost Basis. Below is a chart that maps some SDs of the metric for BTC.
From the graph, it’s visible that after rejection at the STH Cost Basis, the next level is the -1 SD at $68,000. In the past, this level has often acted as a point of support. It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will make another attempt at the resistance zone of the True Market Mean and the STH Cost Basis or if it will have to fall back to support.
Bitcoin has fallen to the $76,400 mark since its pullback.
