Every other meeting produced a post-decision drop. The policy direction was almost irrelevant, and Bitcoin’s price dropped whether the Fed cut rates, held them, or delivered hawkish commentary.
The chart Ardi shared shows the pattern visually, with successive red zones showing the post-FOMC sell windows across September, October, and December 2025, then January and March 2026, each one landing as BTC worked its way from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025 down to the $60,000s by early February 2026.
An Average Drop Of 11%Ardi’s data goes further than simply noting direction. The trend is that Bitcoin has dropped in eight of the last nine post-FOMC periods, with an average decline of about 11% over the following week.
Applied to BTC’s price heading into this week’s meeting, which was trading in the $76,000 to $79,000 range after a 21% April rally from early-month lows near $65,000, an 11% drop would return the price to $70,000 within the next week.
