“Crypto’s current state is a bit shit,” Cred wrote, setting the tone for a critique that went beyond short-term price weakness. His argument was not simply that markets are down or that altcoins have underperformed. It was that the assumptions traders carried from earlier cycles may now be structurally less reliable.
Crypto Has A Brutal New ProblemThe problem is even sharper further down the risk curve. Cred said the long tail of speculative crypto assets has shifted from a high-risk, high-reward arena into something more predatory and time-sensitive, where holding for too long can mean getting caught by insiders, mercenary liquidity or violent rotations. The result is a market where speculation still exists, but the distribution of risk and reward has changed.
“Everything is extremely correlated and you can’t meaningfully make bets based on sectors as it all converges into a tightly correlated mush, especially to the downside,” he wrote. “Broad brush alt season is an artefact of the past that’s very hard to replicate given that there are simply too many coins and the excess of speculation doesn’t really happen on centralised exchanges anymore.”
He also pointed to a reputational shift. Crypto, in his view, is no longer the obvious frontier for speculative capital. Institutional demand has moved toward artificial intelligence, while retail appetite has been absorbed by 0DTE options, single-name equities and other high-beta venues. That does not mean crypto has no bid. It means it may no longer monopolize the appetite for asymmetric risk.
The most important part of Cred’s post may be his claim that convexity has flattened. Even assets once treated as relatively safe crypto beta, including BTC and ETH, have disappointed some of the old cycle expectations, he argued. The familiar logic of buying deep drawdowns because new highs and explosive upside were assumed to follow has become harder to justify if the magnitude and reliability of those rebounds are weakening.
“Convexity has flattened,” Cred wrote. “Even a lot of the historically safe blue chip stuff has underperformed and the historical anchor of ‘buy deep drawdowns because all-time highs are guaranteed and explosive’ has disappointed. All the shit we used to put up with because of the accessibly massive trend and momentum effects is now harder to justify because those same effects are getting neutered or siphoned off into other arenas.”
His conclusion was that trading crypto now requires more precision than it did in earlier eras. Timing alone may no longer be enough if the rising tide does not lift the entire market. Selection matters more. So does actual trading skill.
“Participation alone can be an edge if the asset class is early enough and/or mispriced enough,” Cred wrote. “I don’t think that holds either, and we might actually have to learn how to trade.”
At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.57 trillion.
