How it responds to that test, reports indicate, could determine the direction of the next significant move.
Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure
Since early 2024, it has printed a sequence of lower highs even as Bitcoin’s price climbed to new records. When BTC hit roughly $72,000 in March 2024, the MVRV peaked above 1.4. By November 2024, Bitcoin pushed toward $106,000, but the metric failed to reach its previous high.
The pattern repeated in July 2025, when Bitcoin hit around $120,000 — yet the MVRV continued lower, tracing out a clear descending trendline. That trendline has acted as a ceiling on every bounce since.
The MVRV is now approaching that same ceiling again.
Buyers Need To Reclaim A Key Cost LevelAt the same time, Bitcoin is closing in on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins.
This level matters because it splits the short-term holder base between profit and loss. When Bitcoin trades below it, recent buyers are underwater and more likely to sell into any rally. When it trades above, selling pressure eases.
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a confirmed move above the Realized Price — paired with the MVRV holding above 1.0 — would mark a meaningful change in structure.
It would signal that recent buyers are no longer a consistent drag on price, giving any upward move a stronger foundation. Failure to hold above that level, on the other hand, would leave the existing structure intact.
US Spot Buyers Are Still Sitting On The SidelinesNegative readings suggest US spot buyers are not driving purchases. Bitcoin has recovered from earlier lows to briefly touch $79,000, but has since pulled back to around $77,120.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
