The Adjusted Realized Price Bands model is calibrated to only account for Bitcoin’s live circulating supply, filtering the effect of the dormant — albeit significant — portion of the coin’s total supply. This metric shows when significant holders, who are likely to make market decisions, are at a loss or near a loss, signaling historical accumulation zones.
Adler Jr., however, noted that Bitcoin’s price being near the bottom doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, as bottom formation isn’t a “one or two week process.” The analyst postulated that the base case for the bottom formation is around six months.
BTC Bottom Formation Depends On Return Of Market DemandIn essence, the on-chain analyst believes the bottom formation will only begin when the investors start to “see forward-looking value again,” and genuine spot demand returns to the market. Unfortunately, recent on-chain data shows that BTC’s apparent demand remains weak.
