Key Takeaways:
Kevin Warsh cleared a 13-11 Senate Banking Committee vote on April 29, replacing Powell as Fed Chair in May 2026. Polymarket traders priced a 96% chance the Fed holds rates steady at the June 17 FOMC meeting. Warsh signals rate cuts tied to AI productivity gains, but inflation at 3.3% may limit his options in June. Kevin Warsh to Step In as Fed Chair, but Markets Still Price a June Rate Hold Above 93%Polymarket participants point to the March 2026 CPI reading of 3.3% and a stable labor market as the main drivers behind the hold consensus. Those two data points have kept the Fed in a data-dependent posture, and traders are not betting on Warsh breaking from that posture, at least in his first meeting.
