Fees in TON have dropped 6× — to nearly zero.
Next step — Telegram replaces the TON Foundation as the driving force behind TON and becomes its largest validator.
The focus shifts to tech superiority.
Decrypt has reached out to the TON Foundation for further comment.
Illia Otychenko, Lead Analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt the rally fits a familiar pattern.
"Toncoin has a history of sharp rallies whenever Telegram increases its involvement or signals deeper integration, and this move fits that pattern," he said. "Right now, it looks more like an early-stage narrative-driven spike rather than a full fundamental repricing."
Otychenko flagged $2 as the key resistance level, a ceiling TON failed to break earlier this year, and warned that momentum indicators are flashing caution.
"The daily RSI has moved into overbought territory, which often precedes short-term corrections," he said. "A pullback around or shortly after the upgrade window is a realistic scenario, especially if traders start locking in profits after the news is fully priced in."
“There’s a fairly high probability of a pullback after the actual upgrade launch if TON maintains its sharp rise,” Ben Caselin, CMO at crypto exchange VALR, told Decrypt, noting that markets often “buy in on the announcement… and then lock in profits upon execution.”
“Durov effectively designated Telegram as the network’s future driving force… and the market has already responded,” he echoed, adding that the real test will be whether near-zero fees translate into sustained growth in transactions, wallets, and Telegram-native use cases.
Similarly, Otychenko noted that lower fees can boost usage but may also erode direct value capture at the token level.
The analyst said that for long-term price appreciation, increased usage must translate into stronger reasons to hold or use Toncoin, or else the benefits of growth may not fully accrue to the token itself.
$NOT posted double-digit gains, while $DOGS and $UTYA surged over 100% and 140%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.
TON memecoins hit a combined market cap of $156M as the ecosystem rallies alongside its native token.
Legal woes, strategic pivot
