“Bitcoin holders realized 14.6K BTC in daily profits on May 4, the highest level since December 10, as the 37% rally from the April lows pushed holders back into profitable territory,” the firm wrote, noting that the surge has created the “first significant profit realization event since December 2025” as short-term holders have been locking in gains since mid-April.
“Historically in bear markets, spikes in realized profits at key resistance levels precede local price tops or sustained consolidation phases,” the firm continued.
According to CryptoQuant’s data, the 30-day net realized profit for Bitcoin traders has climbed back into positive territory, meaning that more holders have notched gains than losses during that time—a move it called a “structural inflection point” in market dynamics.
However, that profit-taking, which sits at a net of 20,000 BTC, is still well below the mark it identifies with bull market transitions, when profit-taking is closer to 130,000-200,000 BTC.
“This distinction reinforces the bear market rally classification rather than a structural regime change,” it wrote.
As the growth in unrealized profits has intensified to levels not seen since June 2025, CryptoQuant warned that the mark signals “elevated correction risk as traders become increasingly incentivized to lock in gains.”
Nevertheless, the firm indicated that a correction could take time to play out, pointing to demand for perpetual futures, muted exchange inflows, and a less severe decrease in spot demand. As it stands, similar conditions historically have “supported continued near-term price strength in bear market rallies.”
Bitcoin was recently changing hands at $80,150, ticking back above the $80,000 mark after falling to $79,692 Thursday morning. At its current price, Bitcoin is more than 36% off its all-time high of $126,080 established in October.
