Bitcoin Dominance Begins Decline — Altseason Commences?

Bitcoin has recently touched the $81,000 zone in the last few hours, as bullish sentiment continues to grow stronger. Data from CoinMarketCap shows a 12% monthly gain, suggesting significant capital inflows into the leading cryptocurrency since early April. However, on-chain data paints a parallel picture of a brewing shift in market dominance.

However, the Bitcoin Dominance has been declining in recent days, suggesting a rotation of capital toward altcoins. Interestingly, XWIN Research highlights an update shared by fellow analyst CryptoOnChain, who recently posted on the occurrence of “Altcoin Volume Increasing Trend”, a signal that appears when 30-day altcoin trading crosses above the 365-day average in the CEX Volume Ratio (Others vs Top 5).

This observed rotation is also well reflected in price movements. While Ethereum (ETH) has shown little price change, assets such as SUI and SOL have registered respective substantial gains of 15.83% and 10.53% in the last week alone. Furthermore, XWIN Research Japan reports that these developments have coincided with a recent bearish MACD crossover on the Bitcoin Dominance chart, which the analysts now say may represent a shift in market structure rather than a mere technical signal.

In other developments shared by XWIN Research, on-chain indicators suggest the broader Bitcoin market remains in the initial phase of a bull cycle. Metrics such as the Profit/Loss Margin and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio are yet to reach previous cycle tops, while long-term Bitcoin holders continue to exhibit relatively low selling pressure.

Notably, previous declines in Bitcoin Dominance have marked pivotal moments for the broader market, leading to explosive altcoin rallies, as observed in 2017 and 2021. Therefore, a sustained decline in Bitcoin Dominance or a resumption of its uptrend will have a significant impact on market direction from these early bull stages.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $80,724. Meanwhile, the total altcoin market cap is valued at $1.04 trillion.