The U.S. national average price for regular unleaded gasoline reached $4.52 per gallon on May 10, 2026, directly contradicting President Donald Trump’s assertion that prices had dropped sharply.
Key Takeaways:
Trump claimed gas prices fell “very substantially” on May 8, but AAA data shows they rose to $4.52/gal that day.The U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude past $100/barrel in May 2026.EIA forecasts Brent could peak near $115/bbl in Q2 2026 before easing if the Strait of Hormuz tensions resolve.The numbers tell a different story. At Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the national average sat near $3.05 to $3.20 per gallon. By late 2025 and early 2026, prices had pulled back to a low of around $2.81 in January 2026. Since then, the trajectory has moved in one direction.
March 2026 brought a monthly average of $3.64 per gallon. April climbed to roughly $4.10. By early May, prices had crossed $4.45 to $4.58, depending on the source. The most recent week alone added about 25 cents to the national average. Compared to May 2025, when regular averaged $3.14 to $3.26 per gallon, drivers are now paying more than $1.40 extra at the pump.
The 2026 price trajectory echoes the 2022 spike under the Biden administration, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped push the national average above $5 per gallon. Wars tend to put pressure on energy markets. Prices moderated between 2023 and 2025 before the current geopolitical shock reversed that trend.
Trump has taken credit for the decline from Biden-era highs that occurred during the first year of his second term. That decline was real. But the current data does not support a claim that prices dropped this week, substantially or otherwise.
Retail prices tend to follow crude with a lag of one to four weeks, and that prices historically rise faster than they fall — a dynamic sometimes called “rockets and feathers.” If the conflict de-escalates and crude pulls back from current levels, consumers would likely see relief within weeks, not days.


















