“This dip will be short-lived,” Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Decrypt. “We've seen a classic liquidity sweep of recent lows around $78,000–$79,000, followed by a solid defense of the monthly 50MA and a quick reclaim above $80,000. On-chain flows show large wallets continuing to accumulate aggressively.”
The STRC mechanismThis Friday marks another STRC ex-dividend date, which could spark another mid-month rally soon, according to Vetle Lund, the firm’s head of research.
The mechanism works like this: STRC pays dividends on the last day of each month, with ownership determined by the ex-dividend date on the 15th. Investors pile in ahead of the dividend, pushing the stock toward its $100 par value, which allows Strategy to issue additional shares and use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin.
However, Adziima cautioned that the May cycle already looks different.
“STRC recovered to par much more slowly, and the actual conversion into Bitcoin buying has been minimal so far—only around 1 BTC reported through the instrument,” he said. “Demand for the preferred seems to be plateauing after the big earlier runs. The mechanism is still there, but it lacks the scale and urgency we saw in March and April.”
Where Bitcoin standsBitcoin has not kept pace with the AI-driven equity rally, according to Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx. “The old ‘AI rally lifts crypto’ thesis is broken,” Ko told Decrypt. “If anything, the AI rally is now absorbing the speculative capital that used to flow into crypto.”
Still, Ko sees constructive signs, with Bitcoin ETFs drawing in over $4 billion in inflows since March, and stablecoins absorbing more than $7 billion since February. “Crypto will gradually leave the bearish zone from here if ETF and stablecoin flows hold up,” he said.
For now, the STRC ex-dividend date on Friday will test whether the pattern holds for the fourth month, or whether the mechanism has run its course.
