As shown in the chart image below, the green bars representing the 30-day change in LTH supply have increased into positive territory in recent weeks, which is a distinct reversal from the red distribution phase that dominated late 2025.
Darkfost also relayed this change to the earlier movement of 800,000 BTC from Coinbase. His point is that May 23 could become an important date for on-chain discussions, as those coins will officially cross the six-month threshold. Once that happens, then investors could see more commentary around how much of that supply is being reclassified into the hands of long-term holders.
Bitcoin Showing StrengthVan de Poppe also compared Bitcoin against gold, saying the BTC/gold RSI has fallen to one of its lowest readings ever. However, previous low readings in the BTC/gold RSI did not happen during the start of a bear market but came during the beginning of stronger Bitcoin phases.
A crash to new lows would require Bitcoin to invalidate the 200-week moving average, something that would break most cycle behavior outside extreme shocks such as the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022.
This does not mean that Bitcoin cannot test lower support. A move to $70,000 could still happen as a support test, but the difference is that he does not see new lows as the most likely outcome.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
